On Monday, zinc ingot continued destocking, SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend. [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary]

Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes for April 22

Futures market: Monday coincided with the Easter holiday, and LME zinc was closed. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2506 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 22,450 yuan/mt at the opening, then fluctuating downward, touching a low of 22,250 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing down at 22,270 yuan/mt, a decrease of 125 yuan/mt, or 0.56%. Trading volume decreased to 51,630 lots, while open interest increased by 1,199 lots to 127,000 lots.

Macro: The US plans to impose new tariffs on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries; Russia and Ukraine signal dialogue on not targeting civilian infrastructure; Trump again urges Powell to cut interest rates, warning of potential economic slowdown; Trump's approval rating hits its lowest since returning to the White House; Musk may announce the exit date for DOGE during Tesla's earnings call; the White House quickly debunks rumors of "searching for a new Defense Secretary"; the central bank and other departments explore the internationalization of specific product deliveries on the Shanghai Gold Exchange; private institutions attending the Shanghai Stock Exchange symposium express firm commitment to holding high-quality Chinese assets.

Spot market:

Shanghai: Approaching the end of long-term contracts, few traders in the Shanghai market were selling yesterday. However, downstream buyers had some inventory from last week's low-price purchases. The futures market fluctuated, maintaining just-in-time procurement, with no improvement in overall spot transactions, and the monthly premium continued to decline.

Guangdong: Spot premiums in Guangdong were 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Overall, the futures market maintained a fluctuating trend yesterday, while spot premiums and discounts in Guangdong were relatively high. Downstream buyers mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement, with spot transactions being relatively average.

Tianjin: Tianjin's spot premiums were around 130 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Zinc prices in Tianjin continued to fluctuate yesterday, with low downstream purchasing sentiment. Enterprises mainly engaged in just-in-time restocking, with limited transactions. Traders gradually lowered premiums and discounts to sell, but premiums remained high. Spot supply in Tianjin was tight, and the price spread between Shanghai and Tianjin widened, with overall transactions being average.

Ningbo: Spot premiums in Ningbo were 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Zinc ingots continued to be delivered to the docks, and spot premiums in Ningbo were further reduced yesterday. The futures market fluctuated, with low downstream purchasing sentiment in Ningbo, and spot transactions were also average. Future consumption in Ningbo will be closely monitored.

Social inventory: According to SMM, as of April 21, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,000 mt, a decrease of 12,600 mt from April 14 and 7,000 mt from April 17, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory.

Zinc price forecast: Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average providing support. On Monday, SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to destock, providing bottom support for zinc prices. However, on the fundamentals side, zinc ingot supply continues to increase, coupled with ongoing market concerns about consumption, SHFE zinc maintained a low-level fluctuation.